中国石化新闻网讯 据5月6日海湾新闻报道，投机者再次逃离石油市场，这为更极端的价格波动埋下了伏笔。
近期基金经理抛售了19%的看涨石油基金的净持有量，这是6周来的最大跌幅，目前处于十多年来的最低季节性水平。
【资料图】
由于对经济的担忧，石油价格再次暴跌。西得克萨斯中质原油期货价格连续三周下跌，甚至一度跌至2021年底以来的最低水平。
加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital markets)董事总经理Michael Tran表示，随着投资者争相退出市场，行业流动性正在放缓，市场基本上掌握在基于算法或动量的交易员手中——这种情况往往会造成更大的波动。
美国商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)上周五公布的数据显示，在截至5月2日的一周里，基金经理持有的西得克萨斯中质原油净多头头寸(即看跌与看涨头寸之间的差额)降至157047份合约。投资者持有的未平仓合约份额(衡量市场参与度的指标)接近三年来的最低水平。
如果没有投资者，价格可能会与供需驱动因素脱节，这可能会给套期保值者、商人和生产商带来痛苦，他们无法离开市场，即使市场的走势与预测基本面相反，值得注意的是隐含波动率最近已经攀升至一个多月来的最高水平。
过去，这种资金外流曾导致价格剧烈波动。
去年，更高的抵押品要求和不断上升的利率抑制了投资者的需求，这些投资者有时利用石油对冲通胀。流动性的减少导致日内价格波动越来越不稳定。到去年年底，超过1200亿美元的资金从全球大宗商品市场流出。
西得克萨斯中质原油上周五收于每桶71.34美元。本周早些时候，价格触及每桶63.64美元，为2021年以来的最低水平。
DeCarley Trading大宗商品经纪商兼策略师加纳(Carley Garner)表示，最终，当石油市场陷入困境时，也会拉低其他大宗商品价格，因为整个大宗商品行业的交易员都收到了追加保证金的通知。
她表示，“目前还没有到很糟糕的地步，但如果油价跌破每桶63美元，其他市场(甚至股市)也会受到冲击。当油价走高时，石油会吸引投资者，他们需要看到一个更加理性的市场”。
洪伟立 摘译自 Gulf news
原文如下：
Oil crash sends speculators fleeing at fastest pace in six weeks
Speculators are once again fleeing the oil market, setting the stage for more extreme price swings.
Money managers dumped their net-bullish oil holdings by 19 per cent, the biggest drop in six weeks. The positions are now at the lowest seasonal level in more than a decade.
The exodus comes amid another crash for oil, driven by concerns over the economy. West Texas Intermediate futures have tumbled for three straight weeks, even briefly plunging to the lowest level since late 2021.
With investors rushing for the exit, it’s drying up liquidity and leaving the markets largely in the hands of algorithm or momentum-based traders - a scenario that often creates even more volatility, said Michael Tran, managing director at RBC Capital Markets.
Money managers’ WTI net-long position, or the difference between bearish and bullish bets, dropped to 157,047 contracts in the week ended May 2, according to data released Friday by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The speculators’ share of open interest, a measure of market participation, is near the lowest level in three years.
Without speculators, prices can become disconnected from supply and demand drivers. That can create pain for hedgers, merchants and producers who can’t walk away from the market even when its moving counter to what physical fundamentals dictate. Implied volatility already recently climbed to the highest in more than a month.
This kind of exodus has driven extreme price swings in the past.
Last year, a combination of higher collateral requirements and rising interest rates dented demand from speculators who sometimes use oil as a hedge against inflation. The sapping liquidity caused increasingly erratic intraday price moves. By the end of the year, more than $120 billion poured out of global commodity markets.
WTI settled on Friday at $71.34 a barrel. Earlier in the week, the price touched $63.64, the lowest since 2021.
Ultimately, when the oil market struggles, it can also pull other commodities lower as traders get margin calls across the sector, said Carley Garner, a Commodity Broker and Strategist at DeCarley Trading.
“We’re not there yet, but if oil drops below $63, it will cascade in other markets “- even stocks,” she said. “Oil lures speculators when prices move higher. They need to see a more rational market.”
（责任编辑：黄振 审核：蒋文娟 ）关键词：
